Modelling reports considered by the Electricity Price Impact Sub-group

The SEIP TAG Electricity Issues Sub-group was made up of officials and industry sector representatives (generally users and generator-retailers). In November 2008 the Sub-group, in an addendum to the final TAG report, recommended an electricity compensation factor of 0.52 NZUs per MWh of purchased electricity for the period 2010-2012.

The following two technical documents were considered by the Sub-group in making their recommendation:

  1. A report entitled SDDP Modelling of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Electricity Generation by Dr Tom Halliburton of Energy Modeling Consultants Ltd; and
  2. A series of slides (PowerPoint, 421 KB) prepared by MED for the consideration of the Sub-group using the generation expansion model (GEM) and results from the SDDP analysis. This work was undertaken to support the TAG and does not necessarily represent the views of MED.

The MED slides cover the following issues:

Slide number Subject
1 Background assumptions to the LRMC driven GEM model analysis by MED and the SRMC driven SDDP electricity system modelling.
3 & 4 Vertical bars represent the LRMC in the base case and the coloured line the revised LRMC build schedule including an emission price. These became the plant configuration scenarios modelled in SDDP.
5 Emission factors derived from the LRMC curves versus cumulative capacity additions.
6 Supply curve from the GEM model ordered by build year.
7 Annual price forecast based on the LRMC analysis
8 LRMC price forecasts yielding electricity emission factors (tCO2/MWh).
10 & 11 SRMC price outputs and corresponding electricity emission factors from the SDDP model outputs.
12 Comparing the SDDP results with earlier work undertaken by Concept Consulting in 2004 & 2005.
14 - 17 A comparison of SRMC with LRMC approaches showing greater convergence over time and the corresponding price impacts and implied emission factors all summarised in a table for different emission costs.
19 - 22 Background assumptions in tabular form and a build schedule variance (relative to the base case) for different emission prices. Please note that in slide 21 (and the tables in slide 17) that “variance” should be read as “difference”.

Last updated: 17 December 2009